Here are
the chilling facts on global overpopulation as spelt out by John Gray in a review of Stephen Emmott's book
Ten Million,
'..it is human expansion that lies behind the conquest of our dependency on
oil, coal and gas; the industrial-scale use of chemical pesticides,
herbicides and fertilisers; battery farming; the transformation of fresh
water into a depleting resource and the mass extinction of other life
forms that is under way. Food production has become a branch of global
industry, increasing our reliance on fossil fuels and accelerating the
process of climate change. A mounting risk of famine is the result. In a roundabout process he couldn't have imagined, Malthus has turned out to be essentially right.
Emmott's short, highly accessible and vividly illustrated book
marshals compelling evidence that "entire global ecosystems are not only
capable of suffering a catastrophic tipping point, but are already
approaching such a transition". He sees only two ways of dealing
with what has become a planetary emergency: "The first is technologising
our way out of it. The second is radical behaviour change." Emmott is
sceptical about the first – particularly geoengineering schemes, which
he views as highly risky – and sees no evidence of any readiness for
radical behavioural change. "We need to consume less … And yet, every
decade, global consumption continues to increase relentlessly." With
neither technology nor politics offering any way out, Emmott concludes:
"The problem is us … We urgently need to do – and I mean actually do –
something radical to avert a global catastrophe. But I don't think we
will. I think we're fucked."
Are we fucked, then? Well, it's clear
we're in for a pretty rough time. The physical systems of the planet
look like becoming more dangerously unstable. As Emmott explains, plumes
of methane – a greenhouse gas many times more potent than C02
– have been observed rising from previously frozen areas off the Arctic
shelf, and if the cause is melting ice triggered by human activities
then the process could go on for centuries. The land grab in which rich
countries and corporations are buying up arable land around the world
will continue. Resource wars will multiply, and in a geopolitical
struggle that has already begun the Arctic will become the site of the
next Great Game.
"People are not bad when they have plenty of room," observed the Austro-Hungarian writer Joseph Roth. Emmott
tells us that the violent spillover of environmental crisis is
attracting the concern of military thinkers, and reports a young
scientific colleague telling him that, looking ahead, he plans to teach
his son how to use a gun. A course in computer hacking might be more
useful, but the point is sound. While the planet is changing at a rate
unknown in human experience, there is no prospect of any radical change
in human behaviour.
That doesn't mean there is nothing that can be
done. Unless climate change escalates to chaotic levels, the human
animal will muddle through. A mix of declining fertility and technical
fixes (including demonised technologies such as nuclear power) can help
deal with the bottleneck in human numbers. The shift in thinking that
will be needed if we are to prepare ourselves for living in a different
world begins with reading Emmott's indispensable book.'
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