Syria: The Failure of the Geneva II Conference and Energy Power Politics.

The Geneva II talks between those representing both sides in the Syrian Civil War have  been suspended without any set date for their resumption. The appalling scale of the killing of civilians goes on without any prospect of resolution. At present the death toll is estimated at around 140,000 dead.

Jonathan Steele writes in the Observer,

'Rather than trying to score propaganda points or blame the other for Geneva's lack of progress, Washington and Moscow need to build on the common ground between them. Neither wants the total collapse of Syria's institutions or its secular multicultural tradition'.

Steele is right to emphasise the fact that neither global power has an interest in Syria's secular institutions being overthrown and the country becoming dominated by Islamist fanatics and a base for those affiliated to Al Qaida. The spectre haunting them is Syria becoming like Afghanistan in the 1990s.

The problem is that the West ( the USA, France and Britain ) are reluctant to put too much pressure on Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Saudi Arabia is intent on financially backing jihadists to overthrow Assad just as Qatar is giving aid and arms to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

True, Washington has been prepared to engage with Iran over its nuclear programme to the displeasure of Qatar. Getting Iran to work with other regional players such Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey is going to be difficult because of the lucrative energy interests at stake in this war.

Having been prevented in 2013 from launching missile strikes against Assad by Russia negotiating with the Syrian state to surrender its arsenal of chemical weapons, the US has sought to take a more diplomatic direction and exploit the new Iranian president's desire for sanctions on it to be removed.

Western policy, indeed, has been based on the fear of Iran shoring up Assad as a client and thus being able to realise its plan to export LNG from the South Pars gas field via pipeline by 2016. The pipeline would go through a Shia dominated Iraq via Syria onto the Eastern Mediterranean and hence EU markets.

France and Britain have been far more reluctant to do anything that would challenge Qatar over its backing for jihadists than the US. One reason is  the rival Qatari pipeline that would bring LNG to Europe direct instead of having to be loaded onto tankers rounding the Iranian controlled Straits of Hormuz.

Both France and Britain have become ever more dependent upon Qatari LNG. Consumer complaints about high gas prices in Britain mean the need to accept the emirates policy in Syria as it helps in enabling British corporations such as Centrica to strike deals over LNG rather than see it shipped elsewhere.

One additional reason for the stalemate at Geneva II and why France and Britain want Assad to go and a regime favourable to its energy interests to be installed is the that both depend on a colossal amount of investment from Qatar vital to boost their ailing economies.

As regards Britain, Milad Jokar points out,

'The Qatari investments are also important in Great Britain. With 20 percent of the shares of the London Stock Exchange, Qatar is the main shareholder of Barclays. The Emirate has also invested massively in the Olympic Games, it has financed 95 percent of the highest building in London (the Shard).'

The US, in its turn, has broad strategy of isolating Iran by thwarting its influence west through a pipeline via Syria and to the east through the planned pipeline to Pakistan. By retaining influence in Afghanistan, thus ensuring the war aim of construction of the TAPI pipeline, Iran's regional power against the USA's Gulf allies can be degraded.

These salient geopolitical factors are all part of the New Great Game for control over supplies of oil and gas that are being used up and diminishing across the globe with worldwide industrialisation. Those concerned with the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria need to be concerned with it and urgently..

Syrian Crisis: France's Stance and Its Strategic Partnerships.

“I am struck by how eager Great Britain and France appear to be in favour of military action. And I am also mindful of the fact that both of these two powers are former imperialist, colonialist powers in the region.” -former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski

France has been more hawkish over Syria throughout the conflict there than either Britain or even the US. When news of the alleged chemical weapons strike on East Ghouta broke on 21 August, the French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, was first out calling for a 'reaction with force'.

A continuous stream of the most belligerent rhetoric has emanated from Paris since then, with calls from President Hollande that France was 'ready to punish' Assad to Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault claiming the attack involved a "massive use of chemical agents".

France's knowledge about Syria's chemical weapons stock may come from the fact that in the 1980s it was French pharmaceuticals that were imported for 'dual use purposes'. The French dossier is technically specific about Syrian CW capabilities but adds nothing towards exact responsibility for the attacks.

The 'public diplomacy' behind the dossier is to back up Washington's version on Saturday and John Kerry's rhetoric about 'we know' everything and 'we have assessed'. Indeed France has been more persistent in backing the Syrian opposition than the US as it was responsible for setting up 'Friends of Syria'.

The 'Friends of Syria Group' or 'Friends of the Syrian People Group' was set up in June 2012 by Sarkozy to bolster support for the Syrian National Council and to prepare for a post-Assad government. The aim is 'revolution' but the reality from the French perspective is its national interests.

France is a staunch ally and strategic partner of Saudi Arabia and Qatar both in the Friends of Syria Group and which support militias with arms and money against Assad. French military ties with the oil rich kingdom have put it at the forefront of the push to directly provide weapons to the Syria rebels.

The FT reported on June 21 2013 an analyst close to ruling circles, Jamal Khashoggi, revealing that Saudi Arabia would never let its Persian Gulf rival Iran 'win a victory in Syria' because Assad had had the upper hand until the alleged chemical weapons attack by his regime occurred.

'”Saudi Arabia has to do something now, even if it will do it alone. The goal now must be toppling Bashar, even if the US is not involved. If Saudi Arabia leads the way, Sunni tribes and o ther countries, including France, will eventually join.”

France, concerned that Syrian opposition forces are losing ground, has suggested it is ready to push ahead with increasing the scale of equipment it supplies to the rebels, but it remains coy on what weapons it may be prepared to include.

Officials said this week that Paris had already “ticked the boxes” of materiel it was willing to deliver on a list presented to the Friends of Syria members by the Free Syrian Army. But they declined to say what these included.'

France's defence of Saudi Arabia's policy in Syria so as to check Iran, its main regional geopolitical rival and Shia enemy, is a lucrative and mutually beneficial partnership. On the August 30 news broke of 'a billion euro defence contract with Saudi Arabia to overhaul four frigates and two refuelling ships'.

France's bilateral ties with Qatar, the other main funder of the Islamist militias, brings numerous benefits from Total's stake in the liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) market and the supply of it as an increasing part of the gas energy portfolio for north west Europe via France's EDF group.

France's energy policy is interconnected to geopolitical strategy and competition with Russia and Gazprom for control over the global market for LNG. The volume of Qatari LNG threatens to displace the importance of Russian gas. The proposed Qatar-Turkey pipeline would rival Russian imports and so it backs Assad.

France's interest in energy diversification coincides with many EU states. However, only France ( apart from Britain ) is a military power that can assert those energy security interests in the Middle East. More than that, Qatar invests billions of petrodollars in French real estate and grand projets.

Syria: The Position of France.

French President Francois Hollande has made it clear he intends to side firmly with President Obama and the USA by threatening to intervene militarily against Assad in Syria over his alleged use of chemical weapons in Ghouta, east of Damascus. France has been the most hawkish of all the powers on Syria.

In being prepared to act with the USA, Hollande, a nominal socialist, is appearing to take the position of Tony Blair who was seen as GW Bush's 'poodle' in supporting him on military action against Iraq while the British Parliament last night rejected military action. But France's policies are not a great reversal.

France has a very strong tradition of realpolitik and national egotism which led it to oppose the invasion of Iraq in 2003 for commercial and energy reasons and for it to be the most hawkish for intervention in 2013 against Assad in Syria precisely a decade later on the same basis.

France was responsible under President Sarkozy for setting up the 'Friends of Syria' group which met in Istanbul on Monday. His successor Francois Hollande ramped up the rhetoric about the need for missile strikes to 'punish' those responsible for the alleged chemical weapon attack in Syria.

France has been at the forefront of advocating coercion as a logical extension of the policy of putting pressure on Assad to surrender power. A political transition on the terms of France and other Western nations involved in Friends of Syria has been the geopolitical goal since the civil war started in 2011.

At the Istanbul meeting one source stated “The opposition was told in clear terms that action to deter further use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime could come as early as in the next few days, and that they should still prepare for peace talks at Geneva”.

France is a strong strategic partner of Qatar and an enemy of Iran which is backing Assad and Hizbollah. France's Total Group has long-term access to liquefied natural gas resources in Qatar and supplies an important proportion of France's LNG needs. A corporate video here was made on the subject by Total.

Shoring up Qatar's strategic position against Iranian plans to export gas to the Mediterranean via a pipeline through Syria would be achieved through a rival pipeline planned from the South Pars gas field ( which Qatar shares with Iran ) towards Turkey which also backs the Muslim Brotherhood.

As energy expert Felix Imonti commented in the online magazine for specialists interested in the industry called Oilprice.com,

''Pipelines are in place already in Turkey to receive the gas. Only Al-Assad is in the way. Qatar along with the Turks would like to remove Al-Assad and install the Syrian chapter of the Moslim Brotherhood. It is the best organized political movement in the chaotic society and can block Saudi Arabia's efforts to install a more fanatical Wahhabi based regime. Once the Brotherhood is in power, the Emir's broad connections with Brotherhood groups throughout the region should make it easy for him to find a friendly ear and an open hand in Damascus.'

Gas rich Qatar also invests vast amounts of money in the French economy, not least to revive depressed suburbs of large French cities which are prone to disorder and riots from alienated youths often holding radical Islamist ideas and viscerally detesting France's 'global role'.

President Hollande's policy with Qatar is firmly within the mould set by Sarkozy is offering strategic assistance to Qatar in return for lucrative Qatari investments which the French foreign ministry put at $15 billion, not including those of the Emir and family relations.

France's backing for Friends of Syria and Qatar's regional ambitions is based on a mutually beneficial partnership and pursuit of ruthless strategic ambitions not mentioned by papers such as Le Monde which reacted to the alleged chemical weapon attack with the headline 'Indignation is Not Enough'.

Appendix: Arms Deals

The urge in France to be at the forefront of advocating coercion to force Assad 'to go' is that it has joined a race to please Qatar and extend the benefits of Qatari petrodollars in promoting the task of job creation as President Hollande would as a 'socialist'.

The Financial Times reported as follows on Hollande's position

“We have reached a balance (of bilateral investments) and wish to preserve that and want to increase the volume of that exchange,” he told a news conference in Doha, noting that France was trailing behind the UK and Germany in the race to lure Qatari petrodollars.

Qatar, which has been flexing its financial muscle since the credit crisis, has made several investments in French companies and real estate, amounting to as much as $15bn in the past few years. The ruling family has also invested significant amounts of money in Paris.

The British government, as represented by Chancellor Osborne, is mentioning how Parliament's rejection of military action in Syria is about 'whether Britain wants to play a big part in upholding the international system, be that a big open and trading nation that I'd like us to be or whether we turn our back on that".

France wants to maintain its primacy as the main arms dealer to Qatar as well, in particular lucrative sales of  French Rafale fighter jets made by Dassault . In June in Doha, Hollande stated, during talks on Syria about  Assad's position, and with evident satisfaction and pleasure,

"We supply light and modern arms to the Qatari army. I made new proposals for air, land and naval defence. I am quite confident that we will make progress in each of these areas...France will always be there for Qatar to ensure its defence and security,"

The British government is going to be concerned that it could fall out of favour with Qatar and lose prestige and influence now that the annoying problem of democracy has got in the way of Cameron, Johnson and Osborne potentially losing ground to France and other Friends of Syria with these lucrative interests.