Monday 6 May 2013

The Syrian Civil War;From National to Regional Conflict.

The reason the Syrian Civil was has been exacerbated, as argued by Oxford University's Dr Mark Almond, is that from the outset the UK and USA demanded "Assad Must Go" without thinking about the consequences and chaos that could cause.

The reason Russia and Chia are have blocked all US decisions in the security council is that the Western powers lied about only imposing a "no fly zone" to protect the civilians as opposed to backing the insurgents into overthrowing Gaddafi.

Then they proceeded to funnel arms and material aid to factions in the Libyan opposition to Gaddafi whose brutality was often as bad as the Libyan regime.Now the new government in Liya, some of whom defected from Gaddafi, some of who are close to the US is facing a 'Second Revolution".

The point being here that the Western Powers continued interference and refusal to negotiate diplomatic solutions to complicated problems merely "ups the ante" and makes regional wars that could have been contained into even worse and wider conflgrations ( as with Libya's conflict spilling into Mali).

As Syria, unlike Libya, has no massive oil reserves, it's unlike a ground intervention willl occur. Yet the same tactic of arming "the right insurgents", has continuously led to the absurdity of "blowback" as British born jihadists jet off to Turkey fight proxy wars then return angry and aggressive.

In Syria the impasse has been partly cause by the catastrophic diplomacy of so-called Western "statesmen" and the failure to put pressure on the Saudi regime to stop arming and channelling billions of dollars to the Syrian insurgents.

With Russia and China unable to trust a duplitous US and UK, still trying to train the "right sunni insurgents" on the ground within Syria, a negotiated settlement that much include Assad is receding. Evidently, Assad is poeerful enough to resist the Sunni insurgents.

And the the way Gaddafi was brutally murdered without a trial, gives Assad every reason to not concede an inch unless the insurgents lay down their arms. And the insurgents have rejected every UN request for a negotiated settlement.

The announcement from Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel that the USA is seriously considering directly arming the insurgents is a stratwegy that is akin to insanity. If they arm the sunni insurgents, the US will inflame the sunni and shia divide across the Middle East.

Iran will step up its provision of arms as might Russia. A civil war could spread across the region leading to a collapse in oil production and global economic chaos. As in many rentier regimes from Bahrain to Saudi Arabia, sunni elites actively repress shia Muslims.

Israel's bombing of Hezbollah's positions proves that, though it will claim self defence, that the ultimate game plan is "regime change" not only in Syria but in Iran too which uses Hezbollah as a proxy in its attempt to maintain regional power and influence.

Stepping up the war by arming the insurgents is part of a plan to destroy Iranian influence to the west. Just as the Afghanistan War remains crucially concerned with securing the TAPI Pipeline as the alternative to the preferred Iranian-Pakistan rival and so destroying Iran's revenue from gas exports.

The target is clear: this is all part of the New Great Game for hegemony over the Middle East in the Middle East and Central Asia in which Iran is the main obstacle. The conflict is driven by energy geopolitics and US over dependence upon oil in these dangerous and volatile lands.

The urgent need is to find alternatives to oil and gas in Central Asia and the Middle East and restructure the economy so that high octane consumerism is replaced with a saner and more sustainable use of finite natural resources. The alternative is war, chaos and economic collapse

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