Patrick Cockburn of
The Independent is no doubt the best journalist writing on the Syrian Crisis at present. His analysis here is well worth the read.
How Syria action risks unsettling fragile Middle East balance of power
Wednesday 28 August 2013
'Will air strikes help spread the Syrian conflict to other countries
in the region? The important point here is to take on board how far it
has already spread and the degree to which it already destabilising
Syria’s neighbours. The al-Qa’ida-linked Islamic State of Iraq and
Levant, which fights in both Iraq and Syria, has already become stronger
thanks to Syria, and is responsible for bombings in Iraq more intense
than anything seen since 2008. The same organisation is responsible for
ethnically cleansing Syrian Kurds in north-east Syria, 40,000 of whom
have already fled to the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in
northern Iraq. If the Assad government becomes weaker then the Islamic
State, al-Nusra Front and other jihadists, the most effective rebel
fighting forces, will be strengthened.
Turkey is likely to support
US actions, its importance depending on whether or not the US air base
at Incirlik in south-east Turkey is used. Turkey has a 560-mile long
frontier with Syria but it is vulnerable to Syria and Iran acting
through Turkey’s Kurdish minority. Turkish government support for the
rebels in Syria is also strongly opposed by the Turkish opposition who
have been reinvigorated by mass street protests this summer.
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