Resource Revolts

Commentators on the fall out from the 'Arab Spring' of 2011, with Egypt having seen a coup and Tunisia teetering on the brink of potential civil conflict to, have tended to skate over the role of environmental factors that drove the revolts in the first place. Back in 2011 Michael Klare warned of 'Resource Revolts' and the 'Year of Living Dangerously'.

With events in Egypt unfolding there will be now years of severe danger ahead.

From now on, rising prices, powerful storms, severe droughts and floods, and other unexpected events are likely to play havoc with the fabric of global society, producing chaos and political unrest. Start with a simple fact: the prices of basic food staples are already approaching or exceeding their 2008 peaks, that year when deadly riots erupted in dozens of countries around the world. 

 It’s not surprising then that food and energy experts are beginning to warn that 2011 could be the year of living dangerously -- and so could 2012, 2013, and on into the future.  Add to the soaring cost of the grains that keep so many impoverished people alive a comparable rise in oil prices -- again nearing levels not seen since the peak months of 2008 -- and you can already hear the first rumblings about the tenuous economic recovery being in danger of imminent collapse.  Think of those rising energy prices as adding further fuel to global discontent.

Already, combined with staggering levels of youth unemployment and a deep mistrust of autocratic, repressive governments, food prices have sparked riots in Algeria and mass protests in Tunisia that, to the surprise of the world, ousted long-time dictator President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and his corrupt extended family.  And many of the social stresses evident in those two countries are present across the Middle East and elsewhere.  No one can predict where the next explosion will occur, but with food prices still climbing and other economic pressures mounting, more upheavals appear inevitable. These may be the first resource revolts to catch our attention, but they won’t be the last.

Put simply, global consumption patterns are now beginning to challenge the planet’s natural resource limits.  Populations are still on the rise, and from Brazil to India, Turkey to China, new powers are rising as well.  With them goes an urge for a more American-style life.  Not surprisingly, the demand for basic commodities is significantly on the rise, even as supplies in many instances are shrinking.  At the same time, climate change, itself a product of unbridled energy use, is adding to the pressure on supplies, and speculators are betting on a situation trending progressively worse.  Add these together and the road ahead appears increasingly rocky.

Breadbaskets without Bread

Let’s begin with food, the most important and volatile of these commodities.  Food prices declined in October 2008 after the onset of the global financial crisis, but that seems to have been an anomaly.  The December 2010 index of global food prices compiled by the U.N.’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) hit a record 215, one point higher than in the spring of 2008.  (In that index, based on a “bundle” of food staples, a baseline of 100 represents average prices in 2002-2004.)  In fact, some food products, including sugar, cooking oils, and fats, are now trading substantially above their 2008 levels; others, including dairy products, grains, and meat, are inching perilously close to record levels.

As 2011 begins, food experts fear that, within months, prices for key staples will climb above the 2008 threshold and stay there, causing extreme hardship for poor people around the world.  “We are at a very high level,” said a worried Abdolreza Abbassian, an economist at the FAO.  “These levels in the previous episode led to problems and riots across the world.”

The full version can be read here.

Overpopulation: Ten Billion

Here are the chilling facts on global overpopulation as spelt out by John Gray in a review of Stephen Emmott's book Ten Million,

'..it is human expansion that lies behind the conquest of our dependency on oil, coal and gas; the industrial-scale use of chemical pesticides, herbicides and fertilisers; battery farming; the transformation of fresh water into a depleting resource and the mass extinction of other life forms that is under way. Food production has become a branch of global industry, increasing our reliance on fossil fuels and accelerating the process of climate change. A mounting risk of famine is the result. In a roundabout process he couldn't have imagined, Malthus has turned out to be essentially right.

 Emmott's short, highly accessible and vividly illustrated book marshals compelling evidence that "entire global ecosystems are not only capable of suffering a catastrophic tipping point, but are already approaching such a transition". He sees only two ways of dealing with what has become a planetary emergency: "The first is technologising our way out of it. The second is radical behaviour change." Emmott is sceptical about the first – particularly geoengineering schemes, which he views as highly risky – and sees no evidence of any readiness for radical behavioural change. "We need to consume less … And yet, every decade, global consumption continues to increase relentlessly." With neither technology nor politics offering any way out, Emmott concludes: "The problem is us … We urgently need to do – and I mean actually do – something radical to avert a global catastrophe. But I don't think we will. I think we're fucked."

Are we fucked, then? Well, it's clear we're in for a pretty rough time. The physical systems of the planet look like becoming more dangerously unstable. As Emmott explains, plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas many times more potent than C0₂ – have been observed rising from previously frozen areas off the Arctic shelf, and if the cause is melting ice triggered by human activities then the process could go on for centuries. The land grab in which rich countries and corporations are buying up arable land around the world will continue. Resource wars will multiply, and in a geopolitical struggle that has already begun the Arctic will become the site of the next Great Game.

"People are not bad when they have plenty of room," observed the Austro-Hungarian writer Joseph Roth. Emmott tells us that the violent spillover of environmental crisis is attracting the concern of military thinkers, and reports a young scientific colleague telling him that, looking ahead, he plans to teach his son how to use a gun. A course in computer hacking might be more useful, but the point is sound. While the planet is changing at a rate unknown in human experience, there is no prospect of any radical change in human behaviour.

That doesn't mean there is nothing that can be done. Unless climate change escalates to chaotic levels, the human animal will muddle through. A mix of declining fertility and technical fixes (including demonised technologies such as nuclear power) can help deal with the bottleneck in human numbers. The shift in thinking that will be needed if we are to prepare ourselves for living in a different world begins with reading Emmott's indispensable book.'

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Down But Not Out.

'Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates dipped into their oil revenues this week to stump up a cool $12bn (£8bn) to bail out cash-strapped Egypt – a swift reward for the army's removal of President Mohamed Morsi and the stunning blow to his Muslim Brotherhood.'

( Ian Black, Egypt's overthrow of Morsi creates uncertainty for Islamists everywhere, The Guardian 12 July 2013

 "I am convinced that we are seeing the twilight of the Islamic revival not only in Egypt but across the Arab world..For a while it was the only alternative to secular dictatorship. That was the conventional wisdom for 30 years. It no longer is." - Hani Shukrullah.

The demise of Islamism as a force in Egyptian politics is greatly exaggerated. The two questions are really these; whether the new government can reverse the economic chaos and, ominously, the prospects of worsening food shortages and whether it can do so rapidly enough to placate those on the streets.

The bleak reality is that if the new government cannot ensure food security then it faces increased anger in the cities will be exploited by the Muslim Brotherhood. Hunger will drive the poorer elements of Egyptian society to support the removal of the government and fights against rival protesters.

On Negotiations with the New Government .

The Guardian states,

'Brotherhood officials had denied they were negotiating with a military regime that has arrested several key members since Morsi's fall, and issued warrants for hundreds more.'

The whole point of the Muslim Brotherhood's strategy of calling on its supporters to 'rise up' is to get them into the streets and keep up the pressure on the new transitional government to regard it as a force in Egyptian politics. there is nothing much the MB can do as it cannot challenge the army.

As the new de facto government lacks legitimacy among the MB's supporters, who belong mostly to the poorer classes, struggling small tradesmen and university graduates shut out of Egypt's political and economic life, the tactic will be to position itself for any failure by the government to alleviate poverty.

If the technocratic government of Hazem Beblawy fails to deliver some improvement in the economic situation and stave off a potentialy disastrous food shortage, the Muslim Brotherhood can move centre stage again. Hence the move already to get pro-Morsi supporters protesting in Tahrir Square.

The Muslim Brotherhood is not going to collapse as a political force. It has managed to survive repression under Mubarak for years because it acted as political organisation and charity organisation providing welfare to the burgeoning population of rural migrants in the cities who failed to benefit from IMF approved policies.

The most ominous part of the Egyptian crisis is that if the economic policies of the technocratic government fail then the political turmoil will be protracted and the economy will shrink even further. With investors and tourists staying away the inflow of hard currency is dwindling and wheat imports cannot be afforded.

The Muslim Brotherhood are aware that the new government will inherit a crisis. A former Musri government minister Bassem Ouda has claimed the state had just 500,000 tonnes of imported wheat left whereas the country normally imports around 10 million tonnes a year.

The new technocratic government faces an appalling task of feeding a population that is already exceeding the carrying capacity of the environment in Egypt and creating a large pool of unemployed young men without opportunities who could well turn to jihadism. Egypt is already vastly overpopulated.

Should the US cut aid to Egypt's military rulers?.

Whether or not it the US should cut financial support for Egypt's military government it is not going to do so. While the interim regime is trying to cobble together a coalition of new civilian leaders to ensure what it regards as a stable and managed transition to democracy, the US will not regard it as a coup.

In fact, the Egyptian army has been at pains to emphasise that the military takeover is a transitional one and not a reversion to military rule or a dictatorship. That is precisely why the US has shown no indication that it will cut funding as the continuation of funding is seen to be conditional on a transition to democracy.

The obvious problem with this strategy is there is no guarantee between now and the next elections set for February 2014 that the Muslim Brotherhood will not keep up resistance to what it regards as an illegitimate usurper state. Their only elected leader was deposed after a year in office and 80 years of struggle.

Even worse is that this potential for instability is set background of precipitous economic collapse and a polarisation of Egyptian society into those for and against the military takeover or coup. It seems unlikely that the IMF is going to guarantee loans unless the government imposed an austerity programme.

It is hard to see that the problems connected with Egypt's worsening poverty, diminishing resources, overpopulation, colossal debts and difficulty in paying for the vital resources including food can be resolved no matter who is in power. And the collapse into chaos of Egypt would potentially destabilise the entire Middle East.

Egypt has a pivotal role in preserving the balance of power and strategic interests in the Gulf region-in particular the control over the oil that has been increasingly essential for the growth of the global economies from the 1970s onwards. If this settlement were to unravel this could lead to a major global crisis.

Egypt's Intractable Crisis-'A Perfect Storm'.

The longer term economic trends in Egypt driving the unrest are not going to be solved very easily no matter who comes to power after the interim regime of President Mansour is replaced by another elected head of state as the Egyptian army has promised.

In January 2013, the Guardian reported on the role of worsening food shortages in prolonging instability,

Levels of food insecurity in Egypt have risen significantly over the past three years, according to a report by the World Food Programme (WFP) and Egypt's official statistical agency, Capmas. In 2011, about 13.7 million Egyptians – 17% of the population – experienced food insecurity, compared with 14% in 2009.

Although findings are based on 2011 statistics, the report's authors say the picture is increasingly desperate for the most vulnerable households, many of which spend more than half of their income on food.

Inflated food prices are not a new phenomenon in a country where population growth has long outstripped production. However, as Egypt faces its worst economic crisis since the 1930s, the rate of inflation has risen sharply, with serious implications for consumers.

The price of many items has doubled since last autumn. Vegetables, along with bread and cereals, are subject to the highest increases, rising by 3.4% and 2.3% respectively between February and March, driven by a 5.5% increase in the price of wheat flour and 4.3% rise in the cost of rice.

Nafeez Ahmed has alo emhasised 'Egypt's entrenched social, economic and political problems'.

'Indeed, Egyptian unrest is the consequence of a fatal cocktail of structural failures rooted in an unsustainable global model of industrial civilisation - addicted to fossil fuels, wedded fanatically to casino capitalism, and convinced, ostrich-like, that somehow technology alone will save us.

It remains to be seen how Adly's 'technocratic government' is going to remedy these deep seated problems at all. Ahmed writes in a fact packed analysis,

'Egypt's oil production peaked in 1996, and since then has declined by around 26%. Having moved from complete food self-sufficiency since the 1960s, to excessive dependence on imports subsidised by oil revenues (now importing 75% of its wheat), declining oil revenues have increasingly impacted food and fuel subsidies. 

 As high food prices are generally underpinned by high oil prices - because energy accounts for over a third of the costs of grain production - this has further contributed to surging global food prices.

Food price hikes have coincided with devastating climate change impacts in the form of extreme weather in key food-basket regions. 

Since 2010, we have seen droughts and heat-waves in the US, Russia, and China, leading to a dramatic fall in wheat yields, on which Egypt is heavily dependent. The subsequent doubling of global wheat prices - from $157/metric tonne in June 2010 to $326/metric tonne in February 2011 - directly affected millions of Egyptians, who already spend about 40% of their income on food. 

That helped trigger the events that led to the fall of Hosni Mubarak in 2011 - but the same configuration of factors is worsening.

Egypt has suffered from horrendous debt levels at about 80.5% of its GDP, far higher than most other countries in the region. Inequality is also high, widening over the last decade in the wake of neoliberal 'structural adjustment' reforms implemented throughout the region since the 1980s with debilitating effects, including contraction of social welfare, reduction of wages, and lack of infrastructure investment. 

Not learning the lesson of history, Morsi's economic plan was to ingratiate himself as much as possible with the very institution, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), that had already played a central role in escalating the country's economic woes.

Egypt could well spin dangerously out of control in a 'perfect storm' of intractable problems that offers a portent of the sort of civilisational collapse that awaits states across the globe created by overpopulation, the impact of global heating in causing crop failures or their destruction through firestorms and peak oil.

On the Crisis in Egypt 2013

The problem Egypt faces after the army's removal of Morsi and arrest of leading Muslim Brotherhood figures is that Adly Mansour, the interim president, lacks a widely accepted legitimacy. It was only in the 1990s that the Muslim Brotherhood committed itself to working through the ballot box rather than armed insurrection.

The army's decapitation of the Muslim Brotherhood, after it won an election in 2012 that gave it 51% of the vote, is potentially a very dangerous intervention. It will convince the more radical Islamists that Morsi's fate is a sign that no matter what they do the Godly will always be oppressed by an illegitimate usurper state.

Given that the Muslim Brotherhood has thrived on a sense of martyrdom after years of struggle underground, the fact that Morsi has been removed following only a year in office is only going to stoke up the outrage as it will be claimed by his supporters he was never given enough time to put things right in Egypt.

Set against the background of rising food and fuel prices, along with protracted economic volatility, the army's action comes at a time when no matter who gains power during or after the interim period of rule there will be anger on the streets and a problem of ensuring support and legitimacy for any new government.

 Levels of food insecurity in Egypt have risen significantly over the past three years, according to a report by the World Food Programme (WFP) and Egypt's official statistical agency, Capmas. In 2011, about 13.7 million Egyptians – 17% of the population – experienced food insecurity, compared with 14% in 2009.

 In political terms, the crisis in Egypt reflects a growing longer term polarisation of Egyptian society that has gathered momentum since the 1973 after defeat in the Fourth Arab-Israeli War. This confirmed the failure of Colonel Nasser's more secular pan-Arabic nationalist vision and led to a reapprochement with the USA.

The policy pursued under Sadat from 1974-the infitah or open door policy-involved the acceptance of Egyptian economic weakness that had led to successive military failures. The policy was to rebuild the nation through receiving large amounts of financial and military aid from the US in return for maintaining peace with Israel.

Many Muslim Brotherhood supporters have persistently resented the combination of dependence upon the US, the important role of the army in Egyptian economic life ( to the point where it controls 40% of the economy ) and the fact that the infitah has not benefited a whole stata of the poorer members of Egyptian society.

With large population growth in Egypt, the burgeoning size of Cairo as a super city of 20 million inhabitants has led to a 'ruralisation' of whole parts of the city where migrants from the villages have tended to look towards the Muslim Brotherhood for common purpose, strength and direction in a society from which they are shut out.

In Egypt, wealth and power is held by those with connections to the bureaucracy and government. The fact that the Muslim Brotherhood was unable to effect any change in that, and instead spent more time on trying to push sharia law, has only annoyed those who value economic stability over Islamist identity politics.

Evidently, as the Muslim Brotherhood were not given long enough to disappoint their mass support base by preaching Islamist ideas of social justice, the rule of the Godly elect and then failing to deliver anything beneficial for most Egyptians, many who elected Morsi could get even angrier if economic stagnation continues.

Overpopulation, Suburban Blight and Authoritarianism.

Increased population means overcrowding and even if planning is used to disperse the population elsewhere the potential for turning England ( especially the SE ) into a vast overlit wasteland is going to be a fact, as the evidence of the new Con-Lib testifies in its absurd populist ploy to build yet more houses.

The BBC reported today,

'Just a few months ago the government rewrote the entire planning framework for England, after fierce initial resistance from countryside campaigners.

Now ministers want further changes to planning in England in an attempt to boost house-building and revive the economy.

The announcements come as the economy continues to languish, with the recession now having lasted more than nine months. The construction sector has performed particularly badly.

Mr Cameron said: "This government means business in delivering plans to help people build new homes and kick-start the economy"

Rather as in Capek's R.U.R where the robots have killed off and replaced humans, the robots can only think of measures to keep the economy growing by the promise to "build more houses". The consequences for what England will look like are appalling no less.

New Labour, which intentionally increased the population by relaxing controls on immigration, contributed towards this rising problem.There were hideous new plans afoot back then in 2004 to build a new super city along the M62 in the north of England from Liverpool to Hull.

'Mr Alsop's vision includes innovative solutions to urban sprawl such as extending Liverpool into the sea by erecting buildings on stilts up to a mile from the coast. He also proposes transforming the South Yorkshire town of Barnsley by modelling it on a Tuscan hill village, complete with its own walls. 

Other ideas, such as Stack - a vertical "village" where 5,000 people can live, work, worship and play - offers a twist on the skyscraper solution to population increase. Mr Prescott has said he sees a northern super city as a potential rival to London's economic power and size'.

Those concerned that population control will mean more authoritarianism and "planning", have ignored the fact that overpopulation and the demand that makes on the environment and, indeed, resources, leads ineluctably to authoritarianism anyway.

The construction of more boxy housing estates, such as the "megacity" that has been advocated between Birmingham and Coventry, will mean more road building ( something Cameron favours, and more infrastructure of huge supermarkets and logistics depots and warehouses with chain link fencing.

The Daily Telegraph reported,

Up to 100,000 homes would be built on green belt in the Midlands near the controversial High Speed 2 rail route as part of a dramatic expansion of housing.

    The plan, disclosed by Andrew McNaughton, the chief engineer of HS2, would exploit the new and highly controversial National Planning Policy Framework, which aims to simplify Britain’s planning laws, increase economic growth and provide homes for Britain’s booming population.

    If it goes ahead, the development would effectively obliterate the open countryside east of Birmingham to create Britain’s longest continuous conurbation, stretching 40 miles from Coventry to the far side of Wolverhampton.

    The planning framework will be published on Tuesday by ministers who want a new age of “pro-growth” planning. It was described by one Whitehall source last night as “the most radical business deregulation there has ever been”.

    Meanwhile, new official figures analysed by The Sunday Telegraph show that two million homes are expected to be built by 2020 to meet demand fuelled by a massive population rise. 

The neoliberal economic model has failed Britain completely. The emphasis has to be on sane planning and not this absurd fetish of making a "bonfire of controls". The "homeowning democracy" is a something that needs to go as well. More five storey flats need to be built as in Central Europe.

Successive governments have been responsible for importing the American style high octane consumerism to Britain, the "Great Car Economy" and waves of house building. It is simply not sustainable in England without a real deterioration in the quality of life.

In any democratic society, retaining the power of a sovereign state to decide on immigration and to stabilise numbers is essential precisely if it is not later to slide into authoritarian control. How to do that is the question. Not Utopian fantasies about infinite growth and Progress.

For an increasing population will make more demands on the global environment too. A society based on excessive consumerism and car use requires more petrol and that means greater involvement in struggles for resources which could mean more wars such as Iraq, militarism and authoritarian rule.