Resource Revolts

Commentators on the fall out from the 'Arab Spring' of 2011, with Egypt having seen a coup and Tunisia teetering on the brink of potential civil conflict to, have tended to skate over the role of environmental factors that drove the revolts in the first place. Back in 2011 Michael Klare warned of 'Resource Revolts' and the 'Year of Living Dangerously'.

With events in Egypt unfolding there will be now years of severe danger ahead.

From now on, rising prices, powerful storms, severe droughts and floods, and other unexpected events are likely to play havoc with the fabric of global society, producing chaos and political unrest. Start with a simple fact: the prices of basic food staples are already approaching or exceeding their 2008 peaks, that year when deadly riots erupted in dozens of countries around the world. 

 It’s not surprising then that food and energy experts are beginning to warn that 2011 could be the year of living dangerously -- and so could 2012, 2013, and on into the future.  Add to the soaring cost of the grains that keep so many impoverished people alive a comparable rise in oil prices -- again nearing levels not seen since the peak months of 2008 -- and you can already hear the first rumblings about the tenuous economic recovery being in danger of imminent collapse.  Think of those rising energy prices as adding further fuel to global discontent.

Already, combined with staggering levels of youth unemployment and a deep mistrust of autocratic, repressive governments, food prices have sparked riots in Algeria and mass protests in Tunisia that, to the surprise of the world, ousted long-time dictator President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and his corrupt extended family.  And many of the social stresses evident in those two countries are present across the Middle East and elsewhere.  No one can predict where the next explosion will occur, but with food prices still climbing and other economic pressures mounting, more upheavals appear inevitable. These may be the first resource revolts to catch our attention, but they won’t be the last.

Put simply, global consumption patterns are now beginning to challenge the planet’s natural resource limits.  Populations are still on the rise, and from Brazil to India, Turkey to China, new powers are rising as well.  With them goes an urge for a more American-style life.  Not surprisingly, the demand for basic commodities is significantly on the rise, even as supplies in many instances are shrinking.  At the same time, climate change, itself a product of unbridled energy use, is adding to the pressure on supplies, and speculators are betting on a situation trending progressively worse.  Add these together and the road ahead appears increasingly rocky.

Breadbaskets without Bread

Let’s begin with food, the most important and volatile of these commodities.  Food prices declined in October 2008 after the onset of the global financial crisis, but that seems to have been an anomaly.  The December 2010 index of global food prices compiled by the U.N.’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) hit a record 215, one point higher than in the spring of 2008.  (In that index, based on a “bundle” of food staples, a baseline of 100 represents average prices in 2002-2004.)  In fact, some food products, including sugar, cooking oils, and fats, are now trading substantially above their 2008 levels; others, including dairy products, grains, and meat, are inching perilously close to record levels.

As 2011 begins, food experts fear that, within months, prices for key staples will climb above the 2008 threshold and stay there, causing extreme hardship for poor people around the world.  “We are at a very high level,” said a worried Abdolreza Abbassian, an economist at the FAO.  “These levels in the previous episode led to problems and riots across the world.”

The full version can be read here.

Thoughts on Fracking and National Self Sufficiency.

'..in a country as deindustrialised as the UK, ministers will always go weak-kneed about grand projects and new technologies. But the lingering effects of the crash have pushed their thinking into the realms of the neurotic, as government has been seized by a mixture of fear, profiteering zeal and metropolitan arrogance.'

So writes John Harris who thinks that the Conservatives have lost touch with rural Tory Britain and the shires. It is as if he thinks fracking for oil and gas in Britain would not be supported by a Labour government he is deluded. Energy security is far too important to be reduced to partisan political polemics.

Unfortunately, many in Britain are just not getting it: Britain is both overpopulated and overdependent upon oil and gas from far off dangerous places. Energy security is national security and any government is going to be desperate not only to please energy corporations but also to harness domestic resources.

Few seem to grasp the contradictions here. The Iraq War of 2003 was essentially a war intended to gain control over Iraqi oil. Set against peaking North Sea oil in 1999 and the road haulier strike against high petrol prices in 2000 ( a popular cause ), it was Tony Blair who was convinced that the invasion would improve energy security.

So the Conservative government's obsession with pushing for fracking follows on from developments in the US where energy security is being pursued due to oil lobbying and the hunger for profits but also due to fears that China is gaining inroads to oil concessions in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.

Meanwhile, the British left and radical Greens are often living in some parallel universe where it is only sinister elites that are driving environmental destruction and wars. True, elites are making the decisions with less accountability but they are doing so in order to preserve the profligate lifestyles of the many.

High octane consumerism is a fact of life in Britain. Few politicians of any political stripe wanting election are going to tell the electors that fracking is a price to be paid because Britain wants to avoid being dragged into resource wars if possible. Nor that Britons should use less energy, especially petrol.

Britain has increasingly built an entire lifestyle and infrastructure around the use of the car. It was New Labour that sought to increase Britain's population by encouraging mass migration to tap 'human resources' from elsewhere so as keep business costs low and not have to retrain native workers.

Devoted to an obsessive model of economic growth via consumerism, fracking is one way of reducing the price of energy and boost consumer spending. In a country with a meagre productive base and rentier economy, fracking will go ahead and would under any government

The only real alternative is to advocate a changed lifestyle in which energy conservation was promoted more and people were encouraged to use less energy and have fewer children. As well as a commitment to curtailing immigration to a minimum. Otherwise, energy security through fracking will be seen as a panacea.

This is the harsh reality.

The British public tend to be living in a fantasy land where they can have everything-beautiful unspoilt countryside and no military meddling in far off lands and high levels of consumption and energy use, the right to cheap flights and holidays, incessant use of the car and out of season vegetables from abroad.

The evidence is that it is British consumers are responsible for a lot of energy wastage. They top the European table for for that. Educating the public is something governments have shied away from because of the idea of supposed 'individualism' and moaning about the 'nanny state'.

As regards food security, there is still a lot of fridge wastage. There should be a revival of the sort of public information adverts on TV that there were in the 1970s about domestic fires and so on to make people aware of the need for proper fridge management. In 2007 there was 6,700,000 tonnes of domestic food waste.

Supermarkets also waste a colossal amount of food. Not only that, 20-30% of the harvest in the supply chain to supermarkets is wasted because the vegetables or fruit do not meet aesthetic standards. Getting used to strangely shaped vegetables and fruit can overcome that.

The public also needs to be educated about the benefits and safety of genetically modified ( GM ) crops and the increased yields it can bring. Faddish green nonsense about a 'return to nature' and eating only organic vegetables is a waste of valuable land that could be used to better purpose.

British needs to adapt as quickly as possible to the new realities of the impact of global warming, overpopulation and overconsumption in order to be ready to be able to move towards greater self sufficiency and to be able to protect itself from dangers and survive the 21st century as best it can.

Should the US cut aid to Egypt's military rulers?.

Whether or not it the US should cut financial support for Egypt's military government it is not going to do so. While the interim regime is trying to cobble together a coalition of new civilian leaders to ensure what it regards as a stable and managed transition to democracy, the US will not regard it as a coup.

In fact, the Egyptian army has been at pains to emphasise that the military takeover is a transitional one and not a reversion to military rule or a dictatorship. That is precisely why the US has shown no indication that it will cut funding as the continuation of funding is seen to be conditional on a transition to democracy.

The obvious problem with this strategy is there is no guarantee between now and the next elections set for February 2014 that the Muslim Brotherhood will not keep up resistance to what it regards as an illegitimate usurper state. Their only elected leader was deposed after a year in office and 80 years of struggle.

Even worse is that this potential for instability is set background of precipitous economic collapse and a polarisation of Egyptian society into those for and against the military takeover or coup. It seems unlikely that the IMF is going to guarantee loans unless the government imposed an austerity programme.

It is hard to see that the problems connected with Egypt's worsening poverty, diminishing resources, overpopulation, colossal debts and difficulty in paying for the vital resources including food can be resolved no matter who is in power. And the collapse into chaos of Egypt would potentially destabilise the entire Middle East.

Egypt has a pivotal role in preserving the balance of power and strategic interests in the Gulf region-in particular the control over the oil that has been increasingly essential for the growth of the global economies from the 1970s onwards. If this settlement were to unravel this could lead to a major global crisis.

On the Crisis in Egypt 2013

The problem Egypt faces after the army's removal of Morsi and arrest of leading Muslim Brotherhood figures is that Adly Mansour, the interim president, lacks a widely accepted legitimacy. It was only in the 1990s that the Muslim Brotherhood committed itself to working through the ballot box rather than armed insurrection.

The army's decapitation of the Muslim Brotherhood, after it won an election in 2012 that gave it 51% of the vote, is potentially a very dangerous intervention. It will convince the more radical Islamists that Morsi's fate is a sign that no matter what they do the Godly will always be oppressed by an illegitimate usurper state.

Given that the Muslim Brotherhood has thrived on a sense of martyrdom after years of struggle underground, the fact that Morsi has been removed following only a year in office is only going to stoke up the outrage as it will be claimed by his supporters he was never given enough time to put things right in Egypt.

Set against the background of rising food and fuel prices, along with protracted economic volatility, the army's action comes at a time when no matter who gains power during or after the interim period of rule there will be anger on the streets and a problem of ensuring support and legitimacy for any new government.

 Levels of food insecurity in Egypt have risen significantly over the past three years, according to a report by the World Food Programme (WFP) and Egypt's official statistical agency, Capmas. In 2011, about 13.7 million Egyptians – 17% of the population – experienced food insecurity, compared with 14% in 2009.

 In political terms, the crisis in Egypt reflects a growing longer term polarisation of Egyptian society that has gathered momentum since the 1973 after defeat in the Fourth Arab-Israeli War. This confirmed the failure of Colonel Nasser's more secular pan-Arabic nationalist vision and led to a reapprochement with the USA.

The policy pursued under Sadat from 1974-the infitah or open door policy-involved the acceptance of Egyptian economic weakness that had led to successive military failures. The policy was to rebuild the nation through receiving large amounts of financial and military aid from the US in return for maintaining peace with Israel.

Many Muslim Brotherhood supporters have persistently resented the combination of dependence upon the US, the important role of the army in Egyptian economic life ( to the point where it controls 40% of the economy ) and the fact that the infitah has not benefited a whole stata of the poorer members of Egyptian society.

With large population growth in Egypt, the burgeoning size of Cairo as a super city of 20 million inhabitants has led to a 'ruralisation' of whole parts of the city where migrants from the villages have tended to look towards the Muslim Brotherhood for common purpose, strength and direction in a society from which they are shut out.

In Egypt, wealth and power is held by those with connections to the bureaucracy and government. The fact that the Muslim Brotherhood was unable to effect any change in that, and instead spent more time on trying to push sharia law, has only annoyed those who value economic stability over Islamist identity politics.

Evidently, as the Muslim Brotherhood were not given long enough to disappoint their mass support base by preaching Islamist ideas of social justice, the rule of the Godly elect and then failing to deliver anything beneficial for most Egyptians, many who elected Morsi could get even angrier if economic stagnation continues.